Прољетни круг макроекономских пројекција за период 2024 – 2026. година

The Central Bank expects moderate growth in economic activity in the medium term, and further weakening of inflationary pressures

Key notes

In the projection period 2024 – 2026, we expect moderate growth in economic activity, and further weakening of inflationary pressures.
In relation to the autumn round of projections from 2023, the projection of the growth of economic activity in 2024 has been corrected upwards, to the level of 2.6%. We currently project real economic growth at the end of the projection horizon at 3.3%. The most significant contribution to economic growth is expected from personal consumption due to the growth of nominal wages and the inflow of remittances from abroad.
In 2024, we project inflation of 2.6%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than the round of medium-term projections from November 2023, and is consistent with the latest nowcast on inflation in the short term. We expect a gradual weakening of inflationary pressures until the end of the projection horizon.
We continue to emphasize that the assessed and estimated values of GDP and its components, as well as inflation, are exposed to a high degree of uncertainty.