Брза процјена БДП-а у првом кварталу 2024. године и инфлације у кратком року

PDF - The GDP nowcast in the first quarter of 2024 and the short term inflation

Key notes

• The CBBH estimates the annual growth of real economic activity in the first quarter of 2024 at 1.8%, which is almost identical to the estimate from March (1.7%).

• The preliminary estimates of real GDP trends for the second quarter of 2024 indicates a slightly faster growth of 2.4% on an annual basis.

• We estimate that headline inflation could amount to 2.6%, and core inflation to 4.2% in the second quarter of 2024. We expect that the annual inflation in the second quarter will be slightly higher in May and June as a result of primarily the low base in the previous year, primarily in the sections of transportation and utilities' costs.

• Current estimates of quarterly economic activity and the short term inflation are consistent with previously published mid-term annual macroeconomic projections.