GDP and the Inflation Nowcasts in the Second Half of 2023 12/15/2023 Tweet We forcast stronger economic growth in the second half year, and continued weakening of inflatory pressures in the first quarter of 2024. PDF - GDP and the Inflation Nowcasts in the Second Half of 2023 Key notes: The estimates on economic activity have not changed significantly since September round of GDP nowcast. The annual real GDP growth rate for the third quarter was revised upwards by 0.6 percentage points to 1.5%, partly due to correction in official historical data. Our preliminary estimate of the economic activity strength in the last quarter is 1.4% on an annual basis. According to the medium-term projection of the macroeconomic model in BH from November, the expected growth of real GDP in 2023 is 1.6%, which is very much in line with the current results of the nowcast model for current economic activity. We expect annual inflation to slow down significantly by the end of the year. We estimate that headline inflation could amount to 2.1%, and core inflation to 4.6% in the last quarter of 2023. The preliminary estimate of the headline inflation for the first quarter of 2024 is 2.0%, and of core inflation is 4.4%. Slightly lower currently estimated rate of headline inflation for 2023 (6.1%), compared to those published with the autumn round of medium-term macroeconomic projections (6.3%), is largely a consequence of continued trend of unexpectedly rapid inflation slowdown in relation to previous months.
