Autumn Round of Medium-Term Macroeconomic Projections 10/23/2025 Tweet Autumn Round of Medium-Term Macroeconomic Projections - PDF Key notes The projection of economic activity growth in BH in 2025 has been revised downwards, to 2.0%, due to the weakening of domestic and external demand, which was reflected in personal consumption, investment, imports and exports. These components of national accounts are also partly affected by the base effect from 2024. The most significant contribution to economic growth in the short term is still expected from personal consumption, as the largest macroeconomic aggregate. By the end of the projection horizon, we currently expect a gradual intensification of economic activity and a gradual weakening of inflationary pressures. Due to the lack of official data on GDP according to the expenditure approach for the second quarter of the current year, the latest nowcast of real GDP growth for the second quarter (1.9%) was used. A detailed revision of official statistical data on GDP according to the consumption approach is underway, and revisions of projections in the spring round of 2026 are also possible on this basis. Domestic inflationary pressures have increased significantly since the beginning of the year. In 2025, we have projected inflation at 4.1%, which is revised upwards by 0.6 percentage points compared to the spring round of medium-term macroeconomic projections, and it is consistent with the latest nowcast of inflation in the short term. Domestic inflationary pressures are expected to gradually weaken over the projection horizon. Estimated values of real GDP, its components and other macroeconomic variables are exposed to an extremely high degree of uncertainty related to economic activity in main trading partner countries, political conditions at the global and local levels, but also the possible significant effects of changes in the domestic labor market on the price competitiveness of domestic products and services.
