Nowcast of GDP for the First and Second Quarters of 2026 and Inflation in Short-term Period 6/23/2026 Tweet Nowcast of GDP for the First and Second Quarter of 2026 and Inflation in Short-term Period - PDF Key points: The CBBH estimates the annual growth of real economic activity in the first quarter of 2026 at 2.1%, which is identical to nowcast from March 2026. Compared to the March round of estimates, current estimates do not imply significant changes to the short-term economic growth, confirming the expectations of relatively moderate pace of economic activity in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The preliminary estimate of the annual real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2026 is 2.0%, with a dominant contribution from the services sector, while the contribution from the manufacturing industry is negative due to weak external demand and increased production costs. Inflation has been significantly revised upward in this round. Compared to the March round of nowcast, the inflation pressures are increased due to the rise in energy prices on global markets and their spillover to the domestic prices. We currently estimate headline inflation in the first half of 2026 at 5.3% and core inflation at 4.5%. We expect inflation pressures to persist in the third quarter, therefore we estimate headline inflation at 6.1% and core inflation at 4.5%. To date, within the June round of projections,we have typically communicated preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter. However, the dispersion of risks around the estimates, even over such a relatively short horizon, is markedly asymmetric due to considerable uncertainties in the international and domestic environment, implying a significant risk to the inflation estimate for the final quarter of the current year.
