The autumn round of medium-term macroeconomic projections

The autumn round of medium-term macroeconomic projections - PDF

Key messages:

• In this projection round, the CBBH revised the expected real GDP growth for 2026 upwards, from 1.9% to 2.3%. Despite a more favourable short-term outlook, economic growth remains moderate, with expected gradual acceleration to 3.2% in 2027 and 3.5% in 2028, which is mainly in line with the previous round of medium-term projections.
• Domestic demand remains one of the key drivers of economic growth, while private spending is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2026. Despite nominal wage growth, the increased price level continues to limit the purchasing power of citizens and the possibility of stronger consumption growth
• Annual inflation for 2026 has been revised upwards, from 4.7% to 5.1%, although in the September round of the short-term inflation estimate, the short-term outlook indicated the possibility of a slowdown of inflation. An unexpected slowdown of inflation was recorded in June and July, while since September, according to official statistics, inflation pressures have intensified significantly. Therefore, our latest medium-term projections are also closer to those from the spring round than to the nowcast for the third quarter. Risks, primarily related to the persistence of core inflation and a possible delayed transmission of international price pressures, remain evident. Over the medium term, inflation pressures are expected to gradually decline, with projected inflation of 2.8% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028
• The realisation of the projected developments remains exposed to external and domestic risks. External risks are primarily related to geopolitical uncertainties, trends of energy and food prices on international markets, and the dynamics of the economic recovery of major trading partners. Domestic risks relate to the persistence of domestic inflation pressures, uncertainty regarding the dynamics of investment activity, as well as structural constraints related to the labour market and productivity. An additional risk to the inflation projections is the possible delayed transmission of earlier international price shocks to the domestic market