The CBBH is publishing an estimate of core and services sector inflations for April 2025

Based on the available, official statistical data for consumer price indices in BH, and the corresponding weights, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) has estimated (link) the annual core inflation, for the first four months of 2025, at 4.17%. The annual growth of average consumer prices in the services sector is estimated at 4.68%.

Monthly changes in the level of the headline and estimated core and inflation in the services sector are very uniform, indicating that the increase in electricity prices and the minimum wage had an inflationary effect, especially in services. Due to the smaller sum of weights in core inflation, compared to headline inflation, the change in inflation for the period is less noticeable (Graph 1). The CBBH estimate of core inflation based on official statistical data does not deviate significantly from our estimate from the March round of nowcast on core inflation. Relying on a very limited number of official data, and estimates that we could not calibrate based on previous experiences, two months ago we modeled the core inflation for the first four months at only 30 bp below the value we now estimate based on official statistical data.  

Graph 1: Inflation in BH, period to period

Source: BHAS, CBBH