Nowcast on the GDP for the first and second quarter 2025 and on the short-term inflation 6/19/2025 Tweet PDF - Nowcast on the GDP for the first and second quarter 2025 and on the short-term inflation Key notes: • The CBBH estimates the annual growth rate of real economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 at 2.2%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous round of the nowcast. Due to the decrease in domestic demand, the trade sector has recorded a decrease in the volume of activity since the beginning of the year. The negative contribution of the manufacturing sector continues to further slow down economic activity in the country. • The preliminary estimate of the annual growth rate of real GDP for the second quarter of 2025 is 2.5%, primarily due to the expected more intensive growth in the service sector. • We estimate headline inflation in the second quarter of 2025 at 3.3%, and core inflation at 4.0%. Our preliminary estimate of headline inflation in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.0%, and core inflation is 4%. Inflation in the observed period is predominantly driven by the growth in food and services prices, which had an upward trend due to higher input costs. A significant contribution to the growth of input costs also comes from the increase in the minimum wage, which had a knock-on effect on wage growth in all sectors. • In the coming period, we expect inflationary pressures in the country to strengthen due to possible shocks in the prices of goods traded on international markets, primarily energy products. • Current estimates of quarterly economic activity and inflation in the short term are consistent with the published medium-term annual macroeconomic projections from April. Uncertainties related to the estimates, primarily inflation, are very pronounced in the short term.
